Leap from Japan to the world
With the development of technology, solar power is becoming more and more economical in many parts of the world. Bloomberg, the author pointed out that the expected solar power in 10 years is expected to exceed the coal-fired power generation, to become the world's lowest cost power generation option.
Comprehensive 2016 data, solar power in a number of countries around the world to break the record price of history, with an average of about half the cost of coal-fired power generation. Among them, Chile in August solar power auction, reported a 2.91 cents / kWh low price; in September, the United Arab Emirates and took a new low price of 2.42 cents / kwh.
Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Mexico are already planning a solar energy tender this year and are expected to further reduce prices, Bloomberg reported. Some other European companies, including Enel in Italy and Mainstream Renewable in Ireland, have begun to focus on emerging markets in other parts of the world by taking advantage of the large amount of accumulated prior to the Power.
Statistics show that since 2009, based on the decline in the cost of each link in the supply chain, the average price of global solar power has fallen by 62%. Peng Boxin energy finance predicts that by 2025, the average cost of solar energy in the world may be lower than coal-fired power generation.
The International Renewable Energy Agency Director General Anand Amin, said: "every time the solar energy installed capacity doubled, can drive the price of electricity is reduced by about 20%. This will change the rules of the game for the electricity market."
Bloomberg believes that technological progress is the key factor to promote the rapid development of solar energy industry. In addition, the economies of scale and experience of the rich, but also makes the market competitiveness of solar power increasing. According to the introduction of solar energy finance director JennyChase Peng Boxin analysis, the current average increase of 1 MW solar ground system installed, power generation costs about $1.14 per watt; but it is expected that by 2025, this number will be reduced to 73 cents / watt, a decrease of 36%.
Market research firm GTM Research analyst in the United States, for example, pointed out that the current price of solar power in some parts of the United States in the southwest near $1 / watt, in 2021 may fall to 75 cents / watt MJShiao. However, the U.S. Department of energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory forecast slightly conservative. In 2020, the cost of solar power could fall to $1 per watt, according to DonaldChung, a senior project director at the laboratory, but he also believes that the decline will remain at the end of 2030.
Enviromena Power, founder of Abu Dhabi solar developer and CEO of Systems SamiKhoreibi said, solar power has in fact opened a "puerile" mode, lower prices will be a normal future".
According to the International Energy Agency estimates that the cost of utilities solar power in the next 5 years, the average will be reduced by 25%. The International Renewable Energy Agency predicts that by 2025, solar power costs will fall by 43% to $65%, compared with the 2009 level of cumulative decline of up to 84%.
However, Bloomberg also pointed out that although the average cost of solar power will continue to decline, but in various countries and regions in the world, the decline may not be the same. Such as Europe and Brazil, due to imports of coal, the implementation of carbon tax policy, is expected around 2020 solar power price is expected to lower than the coal-fired power generation; and such as India has its own national large coal reserves, solar electricity prices dropped below coal-fired power may take longer time to.
In the face of the industry's optimism about solar power, as a reference object, coal-fired power generation industry is not discouraged".
Chief executive officer Benjamin Sporton proposed the world coal Institute, renewable energy generation costs are often not considered to the standby power supply part of the cost, once this part of the expenses are also included, coal-fired power generation economic advantage even in 2035 will still very obvious.
"All economies in the process of rapid development, the need for all-weather power supply protection." Sporton said, "however, wind power, solar power are intermittent power supply. Therefore, although the cost of renewable energy in recent years, a significant reduction in the cost of electricity, but talking about the cost of electricity or from the cost of the entire power system to consider."
However, even so, the industry still believe that the price of solar power has been involved in market competition, the strength". According to Peng Boxin energy finance forecast, as the world's largest solar market in China, by 2030 will be able to lower the cost of solar power generation. In addition, sunshine conditions are relatively good countries and regions, the future may be in the lead in reducing the cost of electricity generation.
"We've seen a new market reality." "The future of solar energy could be the lowest cost of electricity," Khoreibi said. It can be predicted that with the development of technology, the cost of solar power will continue in 2016, the photovoltaic industry has experienced fierce competition in the market. The new year, the industry can not help but look forward to: 2017 PV market will be what kind of scene?
Many market analysts to predict that in 2017 the global PV market growth rate will slow down. According to the prediction of EnergyTrend gold report, 2017 will be the year or nearly zero growth since the rapid development of solar PV market demand, the United States and Japan area or the global recession, the second half of this year may pile up in excess of requirement reproduction price disorder storm, not only in the upstream components, polysilicon, wafer cell low prices may be low.